Tropical Cyclone Model & Best Track Archive: Current Storms (2024)

FAQs

What is the most accurate hurricane tracking model? ›

Overall, there was no single best-performing track model in 2022, according to NHC. Rather, there were different top performers at various time ranges: the GFS at short lead times (12 to 24 hours), HMON at middle lead times (2 to 4 days), and the GEFS (GFS ensemble) at long range (5 days).

The GFS model was the best model in 2021, followed by the European model. The HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and CMC models did respectably for forecasts up to 72 hours; at longer time periods, the CMC and COAMPS-TC models performed poorly.

The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) is NOAA's next-generation numerical model and data assimilation system developed within the framework of the Uniform Forecast System (UFS).

Typhoon Haiyan was the most powerful tropical cyclone ever to hit land and perhaps the most powerful in recorded history. But what lessons can scientists draw from an awesome storm with winds of just over 300 kilometers an hour? Not as much as they might wish. Why was Typhoon Haiyan so strong?

Most of the time, the European model is the most accurate. For example, the Euro was the first model that showed the southward shift of the storm on Monday. Eventually, the other models followed. The GFS is a weather forecast model that collects data for land-soil and atmospheric variables.

All aspects of meteorology are based upon a world-wide 24-hour clock called Zulu time (Z), more commonly called Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). You will notice all weather maps, radar, and satellite images all have their time expressed in "Z".

The European model, too, had a narrower spread of track predictions than the American model, operated by NOAA. But that model and others NOAA uses to analyze hurricanes, on the other hand, reliably predicted the rapid intensification that made Ian so devastating.

Let's summarize the main differences between both leading weather forecasting models: Resolution: GFS runs at a lower resolution than the ECMWF model. The grid points in the GFS model are located farther apart (every 13 kilometers) than the ECMWF model (every 9 kilometers).

According to a press release, HAFS is as good at forecasting storm intensity as existing NOAA models but is better at predicting rapid intensification. The model is also 10%-15% better at hurricane track predictions.

The Galveston Hurricane of August 1900 was the deadliest hurricane in United States history, according to NOAA, causing tremendous destruction and loss of life. An estimated 8,000 to 12,000 people died in the storm, making it the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

What country is most affected by cyclones? ›

The countries most exposed to tropical cyclones across the globe are located in Asia and the Caribbean. According to a risk index which considers the number of people exposed to this type of event per year, Japan ranked first with a score of 10 as of 2023, followed by the Philippines, which received a score of 9.5.

China is a hurricane-prone place because of the year-round typhoon season. You could say it's the country that gets the most hurricanes each year. Since 1970, there have been over 127 hurricanes in China.

The European model, too, had a narrower spread of track predictions than the American model, operated by NOAA. But that model and others NOAA uses to analyze hurricanes, on the other hand, reliably predicted the rapid intensification that made Ian so devastating.

ECMWF. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is another global numerical weather prediction model that is highly regarded for its accuracy. It employs advanced data assimilation techniques and sophisticated numerical algorithms to simulate atmospheric processes.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) weather forecast model that generates data for dozens of atmospheric and land-soil variables, including temperatures, winds, precipitation, soil moisture, and atmospheric ozone concentration.